The Third Revolution
Paul Harrison

Notes and References 

Chapter 1. The Great Debate.

1. Ricklefs, Robert, Ecology, Third Edition, W. H. Freeman, New York, 1990, pp320-21.

2. Highest births figure from Guinness Book of Records 1987, Guiness Books, London 1987, p12.

3. Population densities from Polgar, Stephen, ed, Population, Ecology and Social Evolution, Mouton, The Hague, 1975, pp29 and table 1, p182; pre-1950 populations from McEvedy, Colin and Jones, Richard, Atlas of World Population History, Penguin, London, 1978, p342.

4. Post 1950 populations from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs ,World Population Prospects 1990, ST/ESA/SER.A/120, New York, 1991.

5. Plato, Republic, 460 sq, and Laws, 740 sq, Aristotle, Politics, 1325-6 and 1334.

6. Godwin, William, Enquiry Concerning Political Justice, Ed. Isaac Kramnick, Penguin, London, 1976, p 767-777.

7. This version, and the much modified and qualified second edition, are given in Himmerlfarb, Gertrude, ed., On Population: Thomas Robert Malthus, Randomn House, New York, 1960.

8. Malthus, Thomas, An Essay on the Principle of Population, as It Affects the Future Improvement of Society, 1798; the second edition, much expanded, was published in 1803 and greatly qualifies the blunt arguments of the first. But it is the first that has been remembered.

9. Ricardo, David, The Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, London, 1817.

10. Cited in Himmelfarb, op. cit., pxxvi.

11. Letter to J. B. Schweitzer, January 24, 1865, in Works, 2: 391; Critique of the Gotha Programme, Works, 1: 29; Engels, letter to Albert Lange, March 29, 1865.

12. Boserup, Ester, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth, Allen and Unwin, London, 1965; expanded and updated in Population and Technology, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1980.

13. Boserup, Ester, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth, Allen and Unwin, London, 1965, p118.

14. Paul and Anne Ehrlich, Population, Resources, Environment, W. H. Freeman, San Francisco, 1970; New Scientist 36: 652.

15. Paul and Anne Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, Ballantine, New York, 1969; Reader's Digest, Feb 1969; New Scientist 36: 655.

16. Meadows, Dennis, et al, The Limits to Growth, Potomac Associates, Washington DC, 1972, p170.

17. Paul and Anne Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, Ballantine, New York, 1969.

18. Bentham, Jeremy, An Introductory View of the Rationale of Evidence.

19. Simon, Julian, The Ultimate Resource, Princeton University Press, 1981; Simon, Julian, Theory of Population and Economic Growth, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1986.

20. See for example Lappé, Frances Moore, Food First, Souvenir Press, London, 1980; and Blaikie, Piers, The Political Economy of Soil Erosion, Longman, London 1985.

21. Commoner, Barry, The environmental cost of economic growth, Chemistry in Britain, 8 (2): 52-65.

 

Chapter two: Three Billion Years of Environmental Crisis.

1. Lovelock, James, Ages of Gaia, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1988, p33.

2. Ricklefs, Robert, Ecology, Third Edition, W. H. Freeman, New York, 1990.

3. Lovelock, James, Gaia, and The Ages of Gaia, both Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1979 and 1988.

4. The account of early crises is based on Cowen, Richard, History of Life, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1990; Lovelock, James, Ages of Gaia, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1988; and Stanley, Steven, Earth and Life through Time, W. H. Freeman, New York, 1986.

5. The following section is based on Cowen, Richard, The History of Life, Blackwell Scientific Publications, Oxford, 1990; Lovelock, James. The Ages of Gaia, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1988; and Beatty, J. Kelly and Chaikin, Andrew, The New Solar System, Third Edition, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990.

6. Lee, R. B., cited in Cohen, Nathan, The Food Crisis in Prehistory, Yale University Press, New Haven, 1977, pp28-30. Much of the following section is based on Cohen's book.

7. Origins of agriculture based on Redman, Charles L., The Rise of Civilization, W. H. Freeman, San Francisco, 1978; Wenke, Robert J., Patterns in Prehistory, Oxford University Press, 1980; Cohen, Mark Nathan, The Food Crisis in Prehistory, Yale University Press, 1977; Boserup, Ester, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth, Allen and Unwin, London, 1965.

8. Harlan, Jack and Zohary, Daniel, Distribution of Wild Wheats and Barley, Science, 153: 1074-80, 1966.

9. Smith, Philip and Young, T. Cuyler, The Evolution of early agriculture and culture in greater Mesopotamia, in Spooner, B. J., ed, Population Growth: Anthropological Implications, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachussetts, 1972.

10. Binford, Lewis, An Archeological Perspective, Seminar Press, New York, 1972.

11. Cohen. Nathan, The Food Crisis in Prehistory, Yale University Press, 1977.

12. Young, T. Cuyler, Population Densities and early Mesopotamian origins, in Ucko, P. J. et al, eds, Man, Settlement and Urbanism, Duckworth, London, 1972.

13. Boserup, Ester, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth, Allen and Unwin, London, 1965; further refined and expanded in: Population and Technology, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1980.

14. Ruthenberg, Hans, Farming Systems in the Tropics, 3rd edition, Clarendon Press.

15. This transition has been carefully studied for Africa by Pingali, Prabhu, Bigot, Yves and Binswanger, Hans, in Agricultural Mechanization and the Evolution of Farming in Sub-Saharan Africa, Report ARU 40, World Bank, Washington DC, 1985.

16. Acts, x: 13.

17. See Coon, Carleton, The Hunting Peoples, Penguin Books, London 1976, and Service, Elman R., Primitive Social Organization, Random House, New York, 1971.

18. See Harrison, Paul, The History of Heaven, forthcoming.

19. The following account is based on: Wilkinson, Richard G., Poverty and Progress, Methuen, 1973; Kellenbenz, Hermann, Technology in the Age of the Scientific Revolution, in Cipolla, Cipolla, Carlo, ed., The Fontana Economic History of Europe vol 2, Fontana, London, 1973; Lilley, Samuel, Technological Progress and the Industrial Revolution, and Sella, Domenico, European Industries 1500-1700, both in Cipollla, Carlo, ed., The Fontana Economic History of Europe vol 3, Fontana, London, 1973.

20. Kellenbenz, Hermann, Technology in the Age of the Scientific Revolution, and Sella, Domenico, European Industries 1500-1700, both in Cipolla, Carlo, ed., The Fontana Economic History of Europe vol 2, Fontana, London, 1973.

21. Lilley, Samuel, Technological Progress and the Industrial Revolution, in Cipolla, Carlo, ed., The Fontana Economic History of Europe vol 3, Fontana, London, 1973.

22. Wilkinson, Richard G., Poverty and Progress, Methuen, 1973.

23. Ibid p136.

 

Chapter three: The New Limits to Growth

1. Vogely, William, Nonfuel Minerals, in Repetto, Robert, ed, The Global Possible, Yale University Press, 1985, p458.

2. Ibid.

3. 1950 figure from: MacKellar, F. R. and Vining, D. R., Natural Resource Scarcity, in Johnson, D. G. and Lee, Ronald, eds, Population Growth and Economic Development, University of Wisconsin Press, Madison, 1987; modern reserves from: United Nations Environment Programme, Environmental Data Report, UNEP, Blackwell Reference, Oxford, 1989, p416; and World Resources Institute, World Resources 1990-91, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1990, p145.

4. Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries, World Bank, Washington DC, 1991.

5. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, The State of the Environment, OCED, Paris, 1991, p226.

6. Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries, World Bank, Washington DC, 1991, p 20-21; Repetto, Robert, Population, Resources, Environment, Population Bulletin, 42: 2, 1987.

7. These rates are calculated on the basis of 1988 US consumption rates of 18.8 kilos of aluminium per person, 9.2 kilos of copper and 4.5 kilos of zinc, with world reserves of 3960 million tonnes of aluminium, 437 million tonnes of copper, and 149 million tonnes of zinc. Figures taken from United Nations Environment Programme, Environmental Data Report, UNEP, Blackwell Reference, Oxford, 1989, table 3.24 and World Resources Institute, World Resources 1990-91, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1990, table 21.4.

8. Calculated on the basis of reserve figures in United Nations Environment Programme, Environmental Data Report, UNEP, Blackwell Reference, Oxford, 1989, p416; World Resources Institute, World Resources 1990-91, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1990, p145.

9. Calculated from Food and Agriculture Organization Economic and Social Policy Department, Country Tables 1990, Fao, Rome, Italy.

10. Food and Agriculture Organization, Food Outlook Statistical Supplement, 1982 and 1990, FAO, Rome, Italy; prices are for US no 2 hard winter wheat, and US no 2 Yellow maize. I have chosen years without major droughts. No run of years is strictly comparable - but there is no overall increase visible, even before allowing for inflation.

11. Food and Agriculture Organization, Production Yearbook 1989, FAO, Rome, 1990, table 106.

12. Ibid.

13. Poverty: World Bank, World Development Report 1990, World Bank, Washington DC, 1990, p29; malnutrition: Food and Agriculture Organization, Fifth World Food Survey, FAO, Rome, 1985, p25; calorie intake drop: Alexandratos, Nikos, World Agriculture in the Next Century, XXI International Conference of Agricultural Economics, Tokyo, 1991; food aid in 1988-89 was 10,043,000 tonnes of cereals (FAO, Food Aid in Figures, 8 (1): 36, FAO, Rome, 1990), enough to keep 40 million people alive for a year, on a survival diet of 250 kg per person.

14. Per capita food production since 1961 from: Food and Agriculture Organization, Economic and Social Policy Department, Country Tables 1990, FAO, Rome, 1990. Index recalculated using 1961 as base year.

15. Cereal production figures calculated from Food and Agriculture Organization, Economic and Social Policy Department, Country Tables 1990, FAO, Rome, 1990; sub-Saharan Africa cereals: Alexandratos, Nikos, World Agriculture in the Next Century, XXI International Conference of Agricultural Economics, Tokyo, 1991.

16. Food and Agriculture Organization, Production Yearbook 1989, FAO, Rome, 1990, table 9.

17. Food and Agriculture Organization, Economic and Social Policy Department, Country Tables 1990, FAO, Rome, 1990.

18. Ibid.

19. Ibid.

20. Higgins, Graham, et al, Potential Population Supporting Capacities of Lands in the Developing World, FAO, Rome, 1982, pp35-37.

21. The figures on land reserves that follow are based on Harrison, Paul, Land, Food and People, FAO, Rome, 1984, p10 (for cultivable area); Food and Agriculture Organization, Production Yearbook 1989, FAO, Rome, 1990, for 1988 arable and forest areas; and Alexandratos, Nikos, ed, World Agriculture: Toward 2000, Belhaven Press, London 1988, table A.7.

22. Developing country cereal yields from FAO data disks, Alexandratos, Nikos, ed, World Agriculture: Toward 2000, Belhaven Press, London 1988, table A.7. Yields for China and developed countries from Food and Agriculture Organization, Production Yearbook 1988, FAO, Rome, 1989. Plateau populations from Bulatao, Rodolfo, et al, World Population Projections 1989-90, World Bank, Washington DC, 1990.

23. Growth rates and target yields calculated from sources in note 13.

24. Fertilizer growth from Food and Agriculture Organization, Fertilizer Yearbook 1989, FAO, Rome, 1990. Cattle to people ratios calculated from Food and Agriculture Organization, Economic and Social Policy Department, Country Tables 1990, FAO, Rome, 1990. The effect of population pressure in reducing livestock numbers is discussed by Ester Boserup in Population and Technology, Blackwell, Oxford, 1981, pp17-18.

25. Irrigated area and livestock number trends calculated from Food and Agriculture Organization, Economic and Social Policy Department, Country Tables 1990, FAO, Rome, 1990.

26. The following account is based on Higgins, Graham, et al, Potential Population Supporting Capacities of Lands in the Developing World, FAO, Rome, 1982; Harrison, Paul, Land, Food and People, FAO, Rome, 1984; other material from Agro-ecological Zones Project, vols 1-4, World Soil Resources Report 48, FAO, Rome, 1982.

27. See Harrison op. cit., p14, adjusted to fertilizer levels from Food and Agriculture Organization, Fertilizer Yearbook 1989, FAO, Rome, 1990.

28. Results with one-third deduction, and for actually cultivated lands, from Harrison, Paul, op. cit., 1984, pp 34-45.

29. Catch statistic from FAO, Country Tables 1990, FAO, Rome, 1990; and FAO Fishery Statistics: Catches and Landings 1988, FAO, Rome, 1990.

30. Ibid.

31. Whale catches from United Nations Environment Programme, Environmental Data Report, UNEP, Blackwell Reference, Oxford, 1989, p292.

32. Sustainable yields: Alexandratos, Nikos, ed, World Agriculture: Toward 2000, Belhaven Press, London 1988; Robinson, M. A., Trends and Prospects in World Fisheries, FAO, Rome, 1984; 1988 catches from FAO, Yearbook of Fishery Statistics: Catches and Landings 1988, FAO, Rome, 1990.

33. Food and Agriculture Organization, Trends and Prospects for Capture Fisheries, Committee on Fisheries, COFI/89/2, FAO, Rome, 1988.

34. Global water figures from Speidel, David, et al, Perspectives on Water Uses and Abuses, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1988, p28; current use from World Resources Institute, World Resources 1990-91, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1990, p330.

35. World Resources Institute, loc cit.

36. Consumption per person for industrial uses calculated from per capita withdrawals and sectoral shares in World Resources Institute, loc. cit.

37. Sectoral shares from World Resources Institute, loc. cit.; domestic use by source from World Resources Institute, World Resources 1986, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1986, p130.

38. Falling use in some developed countries: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Environmental Indicators, OECD, Paris, 1991, p25.

39. Falkenmark, Malin et al, Macro-scale water scarcity requires micro-scale approaches, Natural Resources Forum, November 1989, pp258-267.

40. Percentage use levels from World Resources Institute, World Resources 1990-91, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1990, pp330-31.

41. Ibid.

42. Falkenmark, Malin, The Massive Water Scarcity Now Threatening Africa, Ambio, 18 (2): 112-118.

43. These calculations are based on figures in World Resources Institute, World Resources 1990-91, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1990, pp330-31. Population projections for 2025 are from the United Nations Population Division, for 2100 from the World Bank. It is assumed in both cases that per capita use in agriculture remains stable. Industrial and domestic uses rise to the European levels of 392 and 94 cubic metres per person.

44. Postel, Sandra, Water for Agriculture, Worldwatch Paper 93, Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC, 1989.

 

Chapter seventeen: Towards a General Theory

1. Lattimore, Richmond, Greek Lyrics, Phoenic Press, Chicago, 1960.

2. See Bongaarts, John, A framework for analyzing the proximate determinants of fertility, Population and Development Review, 4 (1): 105-132, 1978.

3. Commoner, Barry, The environmental cost of economic growth, Chemistry in Britain, 8 (2): 52-65, 1972.

4. Commoner, Barry, Rapid Population Growth and Environmental Stress, in Consequences of Rapid Population Growth in Developing Countries, proceedings of United Nations expert group meeting, August 1988, ESA/P/WP.110, United Nations, New York, 1989.

5. Pareto, Wilfredo, Cours d'Économie Politique, para 1047.

 

Chapter eighteen: Particular Faults

1. Fertilizers: FAO Fertilizer Yearbook 1989, Fao Rome, 1990; oil and gas: Hall, D.O. and Scurlock, D.M.O., The Contribution of Biomass to Global Energy Use, c. United Nations Environment Programme, Environmental Data Report, UNEP, Blackwell Reference, Oxford, 1989, p426.

2. Industrial and hazardous wastes: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development The State of the Environment, OECD, Paris, 1991, pp 146; effluents: Meybeck, Michael, et al, Global Freshwater Quality, United Nations Environment Programme, Blackwell Reference, Oxford, 1990, p47; carbon dioxide emissions: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC First Assessment Report, Volume I, August 1990, WGIII p 8; chlorofluorocarbon emissions: World Resources Institute, World Resources 1990-91, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1990, p346-9.

3. Population share from United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 1990, United Nations, New York, 1991.

4. Disparity calculated on the basis of average Northern share of 83.5 per cent, based on examples cited in text. Population increase from United Nations, op. cit.

5. Fertilizer changes from FAO, Fertilizer Yearbook 1989, FAO, Rome, 1990; carbon dioxide projection from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC First Assessment Report, Volume I, August 1990, WGIII p8.

6. World Bank, World Development Report 1991, World Bank, Washington DC, 1991.

7. Water and waste examples from Environment and Urbanization, 1 (1): 40-50 and 63, 1989.

8. The approach is based on Durning, Alan, Apartheid's Environmental Toll, Worldwatch Paper 95, Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC, 1990, p25. Although direct energy use probably is not so skewed as income, when indirect use - via the additional products and services bought - is included, the assumption is probably a fair one. Data sources: income shares from World Bank, World Development Report 1990, World Bank, Washington DC, 1990, pp236-7; population: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 1990, op. cit.; CO2 emissions: World Resources Institute, World Resources 1990-91, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1990, pp346-7. CO2 is given in terms of carbon equivalent. Only emissions from fossil fuels have been included, since emissions from deforestation cannot be assigned on the basis of income groups.

9. Lesotho livestock ownership figures from National Conservation Plan for Lesotho, Ministry of Agriculture, Maseru, 1988, p14.

10. Rudel, Thomas K., Population Growth and Environmental Degradation in Rural Areas of Developing Countries, paper prepared for United Nations Population Division, New York, 1990.

11. World Bank, World Development Report 1984, World Bank, Washington DC, 1984, Box 6.1, page 109.

12. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 1991, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1991, table 10, p167.

13. On Africa see: World Bank reports: Accelerated Development in sub-Saharan Africa, World Bank, Washington DC, 1981, and Sub-Saharan Africa: From Crisis to Sustianble Growth, World Bank, Washington DC, 1989. On Europe: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Agricultural and Environmental Policies, OECD, Paris, 1989.

14. United Nations Environment Programme, Environmental Data Report 1989/90, p 425.

15. See Pearce, David, et al, Blueprint for a Green Economy, Earthscan, 1989, London.

16. Hardin, Garret, The Tragedy of the Commons, Science, 162: 1243-1248, 1968.

17. Sandford, Stephen, Management of Pastoral Development in the Third World, Wiley, New York, 1983, pp118-127.

18. See Harrison, Paul, The Third World Tomorrow, Penguin Books, London 1983, pp11-15.

19. Jodha, N., Population Growth and Common Property Resources, in Consequences of rapid population growth in developing countries, United Nations Expert Group meeting, 23-26 August 1988, ESA/P/WP.110, United Nations, New York, 1989, pp209-230.

20. Cubatao material based on World Resources Institute, World Resources 1990-91, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1990, p41; Satterthwaite, David and Hardoy, Jorge, Squatter Citizen, Earthscan, 1989, pp196-8.

 

Chapter nineteen: Options for Action

1. This figure is based on the following very rough estimates of affluence, meaning possession of at least one or two expensive consumer durables other than a bike or radio:

 

Region Total `Affluent' ` Affluent'
  population percent population
       
Low income countries 2,950m 5 per cent 150 million
Lower middle 682m 15 per cent 100 million
Upper middle 423m 30 per cent 130 million
Developed 1,152m 90 per cent 1,040 million

Population figures from: World Bank, World Development Report 1991, World Bank, Washington DC, 1991.

2. United Nations Population Division, Long Range Population Projections, United Nations, New York, 1991.

3. Ibid.

4. Ibid.

5. 1980 projections from: United Nations Population Division, Population Bulletin of the United Nations, no 14, 1982, p22.

6. Corley, Thomas, Domestic Electrical Appliances, Cape, London, 1966, pp16, 19.

7. Imran, Mudassar, and Barnes, Philip, Energy Demand in Developing Countries, World Bank Staff Commodity Working Paper no 23, World Bank, Washington DC, 1990, p15-16.

8. Ibid., p17.

9. This and subsequent car data from: Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, World Motor Vehicle Data 1990, Detroit, 1990; population growth from United Nations Population Division, World Population Propects 1990, United Nations, New York, 1991.

10. Poverty figure from: World Bank, World Development Report 1990, World Bank, Washington DC, 1990. Other aspects of deprivation from United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 1991, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1991, table 3.

11. See Harrison, Paul, The Greening of Africa, Penguin and Paladin, New York and London, 1987, pp 255-277 for details of low cost approaches to health and family planning.

12. A third path was proposed in the classic: Chenery, Hollis, et al, Redistribution with Growth, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1974. The idea was that the poor could be uplifted without dragging down the rich by a slightly skewed growth in which the incomes of the poorest rose fastest. This still involved faster total growth.

13. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 1991, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1991; Motor Vehicle Manufacturers' Association, Facts and Figures '91, MVMA, Detroit, 1991.

14. Motor Vehicle Manufacturers' Association, Facts and Figures '91, MVMA, Detroit, 1991.

15. On the potlatch see Benedict, Ruth, Patterns of Culture, Routledge and Kegan Paul, London, 1935, pp125-61.

16. Grübler, Arnulf and Nowotny, Helga, Towards the Fifth Kondratiev Upswing, International Journal of Technology Management, 5 (4): 431-471.

17. World Resources Institute, World Resources 1990-91, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1990, pp316-7.

18. Ibid., p142-3.

19. Ibid., table 21.4.

20. Aulus Gellius, Attic Nights, ii.24.13-14; Dio Cassius, Roman History, lvii. 15.1.

21. For a discussion of these points see Pearce, David, et al., Blueprint for a Green Economy, Earthscan, 1989.

22. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Environmental Indicators, OECD, Paris, 1991, p21.

23. Food and Agriculture Organization, Production Yearbook 1982 and 1990, FAO, Rome, 1983 and 1990.

24. Goldemberg, José et al., Energy for a Sustainable World, World Resources Institute, 1987, pp77-80.

25. Harrison, Paul, The Greening of Africa, Penguin and Paladin, New York and London, 1987, pp300-318.

26. Efficiency data from International Energy Agency, Fuel Efficiency of Passnger Cars, IEA, Paris 1991, pp12, 18, 25.

27. Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, World Motor Vehicle Data 1990, Detroit, 1990.

28. Potential: World Energy Conference, Survey of Energy Resources, 1980; siltation: Mahmood, K. Reservoir Sedimentation, World Bank Technical Paper no 71, World Bank, Washington DC, 1987, pp5-8.

29. Ogden, Joan and Williams, Robert, Solar Hydrogen, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1989, pp44-48; Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Environmental Impacts of Renewable Energy, The OECD Compass Project, OECD, Paris, 1988 p49; current cropland from Food and Agriculture Organization, Production Yearbook 1989, FAO, Rome, 1990.

30. OECD, op. cit..

31. Ogden, Joan and Williams, Robert, Solar Hydrogen, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1989.

32. Bulatao, Rodolfo, et al., World Population Projections 1989-90, World Bank, Washington DC, 1990, pxx.

33. United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 1990, United Nations, New York, 1991.

34. United Nations Population Division, Long-range World Population projections, United Nations, New York, 1991.

35. Land requirements. In 1988 each person in the Far East (excluding China) had 0.18 hectares per person cropland. In China, where yields were probably as high as they could get without totally unforeseen technology breakthroughs, they had 0.09 hectares. The 0.15 figure represents a middle level, and compares with 0.546 hectares per person in developed countries in 1988. Land areas per person calculated from Food and Agriculture Organization, Production Yearbook 1989, FAO, Rome, 1990; and United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 1990, United Nations, New York, 1991. The figure for non-agricultural needs is from Higgins, Graham, et al., Potential Population Supporting Capacities of Lands in the Developing World, FAO, Rome, 1982.

36. See chapter 13 for sources on waste.

37. Houghton, J. T., et al, Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment,, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990, pxviii.

38. Burkina Faso emissions: World Resources Institute, World Resources 1990-91, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1990, p346.

39. UK and USA current emissions: ibid.

40. Projections from: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 1990, United Nations, New York, 1991.

41. Country fertility declines: ibid.

42. Paul Harrison, The Third World Tomorrow, Penguin, London, 1980, pp 197-200.

43. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Year Book 1988-89, Government of India, New Delhi, 1990, pp 102-3, 171-2.

44. United Nations Population Fund, The State of World Population 1990, New York, 1990. Urbanization and income: World Bank, World Development Report 1991, World Bank, Washington DC, 1991; agricultural workforce: Food and Agriculture Organization, Production Yearbook 1989, FAO, Rome, 1990.

45. World Bank, World Development Report 1991, World Bank, Washington DC, 1991; United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 1991, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1991.

46. Infant Mortality Rates: World Bank, World Development Report 1991, World Bank, Washington DC, 1991.

47. United Nations Population Division, Family Building by Fate or Design, United Nations, New York, 1988.

48. United Nations Population Division, Fertility Behaviour in the Context of Development, United Nations, New York, 1987, pp224-5.

49. World Bank, World Development Report 1991, World Bank, Washington DC, 1991.

50. Boulier, Bryan, Family Planning Programmes and Contraceptive Availability, in Birdsall, Nancy, ed., The Effects of Family Planning Programmes on Fertility, World Bank, Washington DC, 1985; Lapham, Robert and Mauldin, W. Parker, in Lapham, R., ed., Organizing for Effective Family Planning, Committee on Population, National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1987.

51. United Nations Population Fund, The State of World Population 1990, UNFPA, New York, 1990.

52. United Nations Population Division, Levels and Trends of Contraceptive Use, United Nations, New York, 1988, p26.

53. See United Nations Population Fund, The State of World Population 1990, New York 1990 for a summary of the UNFPA's review of effective family planning programmes and supporting references.

54. United Nations Population Division, Fertility Behaviour in the Context of Development, United Nations, New York, 1987, p 227.

 

Chapter Twenty: Toward the Third Revolution

1. This and following projections in this section are from: United Population Prospects 1990, 2025) and United Nations Population United Nations, New York, 1991 (up to Division, Population Growth, United Nations, Long-range World Population Projections: Two centuries of New York, 1991 (up to 2150).

2. Ibid.

3. Lugo, Ariel, Estimating Reductions in the Diversity of Tropical Forest Species, and Mooney, Harold, Lessons from Mediterranean Climate Regions, both in Wilson, E. O., ed, Biodiversity, National Academy Press, Washington DC, 1988.

4. Thomas, Keith, Man and the Natural World, Allen Lane, London 1983, pp 254-268.

5. Wordsworth, Prelude, viii, 620-730; Tintern Abbey.

6. Thomas op. cit., p266.

7. For a review of attitudes to nature in the world's religions see Regenstein, Lewis, Replenish the Earth, SCM Press, London, 1991. Regenstein considerably exaggerates the ecological concern of ancient religions. But he does show that every religion has some traditional material that can be emphasized to support the new attitudes to nature.

8. See Stone, Christopher, Earth and other Ethics, Harper and Row, New York, 1987.

9. See chapter 13 on waste. The carbon balloon is based on an average life expectancy of 76 years and a carbon output of 3.12 tonnes per person per year in industrialized countries (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC First Assessment Report, Volume I, August 1990, WGIII p 8).

 

Appendix: Measuring Population Impact

1. United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 1988, United Nations, New York, 1990.

2. World Resources Institute, World Resources 1990-91, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 1990, p350.

3. United Nations Environment Programme, Environmental Data Report 1989-90, p28.

4. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Environmental Indicators, OECD, Paris, 1991, p21.

5. Op. cit., p23.

6. Food and Agriculture Organization, Economic and Social Policy Department, 1990 Country Tables, FAO, Rome, 1990.

7. Food and Agriculture Organization, Production Yearbooks, various years, FAO, Rome, Italy.

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